After Round 19 the Broncos sit 14th on 16pts. Win all 8 and they finish on 32; their differential (−126) loses every tie, so they need rivals on 30 or fewer. Model includes remaining bye points (8 teams still bank +2 — Souths do not) and a realism rule: Titans, Dragons & Wests Tigers are assumed unable to beat a top-8 side, so no path relies on those upsets. On pure form (favourites win, byes counted) Brisbane finish 9th on 32 — one spot short — with Sea Eagles, Bulldogs & Wests Tigers already below them, no upsets needed. To crack the 8 they need just one more of the 34-point pack knocked to ≤30, by teams that stay beneath them. Pick which with the Route selector — only the minimal realistic upsets are applied (Raiders & Storm are the genuinely capable ones). Click any team to override a result; ladder and verdict update live.
Source: NRL.com official Round 19 ladder + Legz 2026 draw (rounds 20–27). Tie-breaks use current points differential as a proxy (match margins aren't modelled), which is deliberately conservative for Brisbane. · Classification: Public — personal sport analysis, non-sensitive, not Daemon business content.